Watches/Warnings/Closings/Evacuations/Updates/Links/Contact Info
Ivan Closes in on our Gulf Coast

GCIS proudly powers your community go network sites for the gulf coast.
As Hurricane Ivan Closes in on our Gulf Coast we will do our best to
keep you informed and provide helpful information.

 

 
The Accuweather Forecast Map from 9/13/04 at 11pm CST( the 4am CST was an exact repeat)
has eye landfall at the MS/AL border after 10pm on Wed 9/15/04.
REMEMBER----- Hurricane strength winds still reach outward 100 miles
from the eye wall, AND Tropical storm force winds reach 200 miles
outward from the eye wall.this means conditions will worsen much
earlier than Wednesday evening, even if  you are not in the direct
path of the eye.		 The National Hurricane Center Forecast Map from 9/14/04 at 4am CST
has the eye landfall near Mobile Bay. Around 1AM Tuesday Morning
Reading ongoing discussions from the Hurricane Center,
it is hoped the storm will decrease a bit in strength
 to at least a strong 4, which is still a DEADLY  storm.
 Depending on steering currents and ridges, this map may
continue to be adjusted not only in direction but also in time,
in the event the storm speeds up or slows down. Please
 keep posted hourly at www.noaa.gov

Governor Haley Barbour declared a state of emergency Monday afternoon and signed an executive order placing the Mississippi National Guard on active duty
 

Mississippi Emergency Management Agency director Robert Latham said if people
evacuate from the state's three coastal counties, they need to drive as far north in the
state as possible. "They need to leave with a plan. They need to know where they're going,'' Latham said.  The first emergency shelter was to open Monday night at Crossgates United Methodist Church in Brandon. Other shelters will open, as needed, as far north as Tupelo.

 

 


Why does the Weather Channel have their reporters in Florida ?
Well if you haven't been keeping a close eye on this storm then you might not have noticed that at every single update from the
National Hurricane Center for the last 3 days they have continuously shifted their projections to the west. They use ridges, fronts, low and high pressure fronts and troughs that all guide the storm projecting when they will move thru the area and meet up with the storm and what direction they will push it in.   Millions of dollars are spent on hundreds of forecast models they take the most similar ones and call that the track, they take the farthest outside ones and make that the outside of the cones. Then they factor in their range of error over the past 10 years.  It's very complicated and the only sure thing is. There's a serious storm in the gulf, and it's gonna hit land some where. 
From Accuweather at 11pm EST on 9/13/04 this was a diagram
model of the wind radius of Hurrican Ivan, as you can see the
excessive winds are far reaching.		 From the National Hurricane Center at 4am CST 9/14/04- this is a wind speed
 forecast model for the next 48 hours.

We ask that everyone on the Gulf Coast prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. Please have your hurricane kit ready, your food and water, medicines, supplies ready, your evacuation plans in place, and keep a constant eye on this storm.
Even if your city does not take a direct hit, devastating weather can still affect your area. If you are new to hurricanes always remember to take the approach of better safe than sorry, if you are elderly or need assistance, please call your civil defense or red cross for assistance and planning now. 

In an emergency you need to call 911
** BUT REMEMBER DURING THE MIDST OF A STORM EVEN POLICE AND RESCUE CAN NOT GO OUT DUE TO DANGER**

For civil defense questions call your county
Jackson County Civil Defense           228-769-3111
Harrison County Civil Defense          288-865-4089
 

MEMA
24 Hr Emergency Line: 1-800-222-MEMA(6362)

FEMA
1-800-621-FEMA (3362)

 
HURRICANE WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
MS AS OF 10PM CST 9/13/04		 JACKSON COUNTY SCHOOLS
ARE OPEN TUES, BUT CLOSED
WED AS OF 6PM 9/13/04		 HARRISON COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE OPEN 60% ON TUES, BUT CLOSED WED AS OF 6PM 9/13/04 CLICK HERE FOR FEMA
( Federal Emergency
Management Agency)
A hurricane watch means that Hurricane conditions are expected within 36 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend out 100 miles form the eye of Ivan and tropical storm force winds extend out over 200 miles form the eye.		 CLICK HERE FOR UPDATED MEMA -JACKSON COUNTY MS INFORMATION ON SCHOOLS AND ROADS CLICK HERE FOR UPDATED MEMA
HARRISON COUNTY MS
INFORMATION ON SCHOOLS AND ROADS		 CLICK HERE FOR MEMA
( Mississippi Emergency Management Agency)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO
JACKSON COUNTY CIVIL DEFENSE
 		 CLICK HERE FOR JACKSON COUNTY EVACUATION MAPS

CLICK HERE TO GO TO
HARRISON COUNTY CIVIL DEFENSE

 CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE RED CROSS WEBSITE TO FIND HELP OR DONATE
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO
National Hurricane Center & WWW.NOAA.GOV
for maps, forecasts, advisories, satellite imagery, probabilities and discussions. 		CLICK HERE TO GO TO
WWW.WLOX.COM
our local TV station		 CLICK HERE TO GO TO
WWW.SUNHERALD.COM
our local newspaper		 CLICK HERE TO GO TO
The Weather Channel

On Monday evening, these shelters were scheduled to open at 8 a.m. Wednesday:

• St. Martin East Elementary on Rose Farm Road, just south of Interstate 10's Exit 50.

• Vancleave High School on Mississippi 57, north of Interstate 10.

• East Central High School in Hurley. It is on the north side of Mississippi 614.

Shelter locations in Harrison and Hancock counties will be announced if and when evacuations become necessary.

 

We welcome all community members or their out of state loved ones, to use the guest books on our community go sites, to post updates on their status.
For example if you live in Ocean Springs, go to the www.gooceansprings.com website by clicking the link at the top of the page, find the guestbook and post an update on your status for your friends and loved ones.  This can also be used in reverse for friends or loved ones looking for status updates on people in communities here on the coast. 

If you want to help

Salvation Army personnel from Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana were placed on readiness alert Monday, gearing up to deploy wherever Hurricane Ivan makes landfall.

Personnel are gathering in Jackson. By Thursday night, they will be joined by other Salvation Army groups from Texas, Arkansas and Oklahoma, which will provide an additional 15 mobile kitchens for hurricane victims.

A mobile feeding unit or canteen carries a crew of two to four people and can serve up to 1,000 meals per day before restocking.

How to donate to disaster relief efforts: via credit card, call 1-800-SAL-ARMY or online at www.1800salarmy.org; by check, mail to The Salvation Army - ALM Division, P.O. Box 4857, Jackson, MS 39296-4857; or donations in-kind, call 800-996-ARMY.

Jackson County sandbag locations

Prepackaged sandbags are stored at and will be distributed from several volunteer fire departments in Jackson County. They are:

• Central Jackson County: Elm Street and Beach Street stations at St. Andrews and the East Simmons Bayou Drive station at Gulf Park Estates.

• West Jackson County: Fort Bayou station on Seymour Lane, West Jackson County station on Big Ridge Road, St. Martin station on St. Martin Road, Latimer station on Tucker Road and Jim Ramsey station on Jim Ramsey Road.

• East Jackson County: Franklin Creek and Forts Lake station in Forts Lake, Orange Grove Fire Station on Orange Grove Road and the Jackson County Fairgrounds just north of Singing River Hospital

 

EXPERTS DISCUSSIONS

Accuweather-    www.accuweather.com

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER   www.noaa.gov
POSTED: September 14, 2004 2:42 a.m.

 

Dangerous Ivan Pushing into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico

At 2:00 AM EDT Tuesday morning, Ivan was maintaining category-five strength, with top sustained winds of 160 mph. The center of Ivan's large eye was at 22.4 degrees north and 85.6 degrees west, or 55 miles west northwest of the western tip of Cuba. Movement was toward the northwest at 9 mph. The central pressure of Ivan was 27.23 inches. A hurricane warning remains in effect for western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth; a hurricane watch is in effect for the rest of Cuba. A hurricane warning is in effect for the northeastern Yucatan peninsula. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas. A hurricane watch remains in effect for the northern Gulf of Mexico from Morgan City Louisiana eastward to St. Marks, Florida.

Currently, Accuweather.com meteorologists still believe Ivan will make landfall between New Orleans and Panama City within a few hours of daybreak on Thursday morning. The intensity forecast is a real challenge with Ivan. The most recent maps showing water temperatures and the depth of the warmer water shows that Ivan will be tracking into warm waters over the southern Gulf of Mexico. However, the depth of the warm water is less than compared to where it has been tracking between western Cuba and Jamaica. This could cause the hurricane to weaken somewhat, especially since it is tracking rather slow. This same data shows a pool of very warm water with good depth between 85 west and 90 west along 27 north. If our track is correct Ivan will track over this very warm water area during Wednesday afternoon and evening. That could allow Ivan to remain very strong just before landfall.

 

 
000
WTNT44 KNHC 140839
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004
 
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST WENT THROUGH THE EYE OF IVAN AND
MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 924 MB WITH A DROP AND ESTIMATED 920 MB BY
EXTRAPOLATION. MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SO FAR ARE 142 KNOTS AND WITH
THE PRESSURE RISING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY MAY BE LITTLE LOWER. 
BECAUSE THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION YET...WE
WILL KEEP THE WINDS AT 140 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD
CONVECTIVE TOPS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IVAN MOVES FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND ENCOUNTERS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...IVAN SHOULD
STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE UNITED STATES COAST.
 
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THERE
HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING WHICH CONTINUES TO
BE CONTROLLED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. IVAN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH
BRINGS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST IN ABOUT 48
HOURS. ONCE INLAND...THE GUIDANCE SLOWS DOWN A WEAKENED IVAN OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IN THAT AREA.
 
NOTE: DUE TO FORECAST ERRORS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT
TRACK AS THE EVENTUAL LANDFALL POINT. THE ENTIRE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA IS AT RISK.

 

 

 



  

PROBABILITIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AS OF 5AM EST 9/14/04

 Our interpretation

000
WTNT74 KNHC 140838
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004
 
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  86.0 WEST
 
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004
 
LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
 
26.0N  87.7W      40  1  X  X 41   PANAMA CITY FL     X  3 10  3 16
28.0N  88.3W       5 24  X  X 29   PENSACOLA FL       X  7 12  2 21
30.0N  88.0W       X 14  8  2 24   MOBILE AL          X  9 12  2 23
MUAN 219N 850W    99  X  X  X 99   GULFPORT MS        X 13  9  1 23
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  2  2   BURAS LA           X 21  3  1 25
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  3  3   NEW ORLEANS LA     X 14  6  2 22
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  6  6   NEW IBERIA LA      X  6  7  3 16
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  5  5   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  3  4  7
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  4  4   GALVESTON TX       X  X  1  3  4
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  2  2   FREEPORT TX        X  X  X  2  2
FT MYERS FL        X  X  X  2  2   GULF 29N 85W       X  4  7  3 14
VENICE FL          X  X  1  2  3   GULF 29N 87W       X 17  4  1 22
TAMPA FL           X  X  1  4  5   GULF 28N 89W       5 23  1  X 29
CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  2  5  7   GULF 28N 91W       1 15  2  1 19
ST MARKS FL        X  X  6  6 12   GULF 28N 93W       X  2  3  2  7
APALACHICOLA FL    X  2  8  4 14   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  X  2  2
 
COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM WED TO  2PM WED
C FROM  2PM WED TO  2AM THU
D FROM  2AM THU TO  2AM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
 		  

 

 Going by the data provided to the left. you will see that between 2am wed to 2pm wed is Gulfport's most likely time to be struck, with a ranking of 13, which for landfall is third with Buras LA having a 21, New Orleans LA having a 14, and Gulfport having a 13.

If you look at a map of the area you will understand this probability forecast. if the storm actually moves a bit westward, then takes a north easterly turn it just about have to clip New Orleans to reach Gulfport. and since it's further south it would be sooner on the time scale than more northerly points on the map.